CHANGES TO THE K2 NORTH GLACIER
SINCE CHINA HAS REOPENED WE ARE BUSY RESTARTING TRIPS AFTER 3 YEARS. THIS INCLUDES TO THE NORTH SIDE OF K2, AN AREA NOTORIOUSLY REMOTE AND LITTLE DOCUMENTED, THAT HAS SEEN NO PRESENCE UP THE GLACIER IN OVER A DECADE.
EVEN IN THE BUSIEST OF YEARS THE NORTH SIDE OF THE KARAKORAM USUALLY SAW NO ONE OTHER THAN HERDERS GRAZING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SHAKSGAM RIVER AND MAYBE ONE OR TWO TREKKING TEAMS. EXPEDITIONS TO THE UPPER ‘ITALIAN’ CAMP NUMBERED ONLY THREE OR FOUR IN THE LAST TWO DECADES.
ALL THIS MEANS THAT DATA ON THE CONDITIONS UP THERE IS INCREDIBLY SPARSE, WITH EVEN FEWER SCIENTISTS VISITING THAN CLIMBERS. WE HAVE FOUND THIS MAKES FOR INTERESTING WORK FIGURING OUT THINGS LIKE RUNNING SOLAR AND WIND POWER SYSTEMS, AS ALMOST ALL DATA IS MODELLED NOT FROM ACTUAL DIRECT COLLECTION.
FOR YEARS NOW WE WERE PREPARING TO USE MICRO-HYDRO COLLECTION AS PART OF OUR ENERGY RESOURCE, WITH TECHNOLOGY GLEANED FROM BLUEWATER SAILING, ALTERNATIVE LIVING AND DISASTER RELIEF. WE BASED ALL THIS ON CONVERSATIONS WITH RALF DUJMOVITZ WHO CONFIRMED THERE WAS RUNNING WATER AT THE HIGHER BASECAMP LOCATION WHEN HE WAS THERE, JUST WE HAD FOUND IN OUR VISITS BEFORE, AND OVER THE YEARS SINCE THEN WE FOUND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THIS TO BE A STABLE FEATURE.
SO WE THOUGHT.
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THIS YEAR, WITH BOTH THE REOPENING AND THE UPDATING OF SATELLITE IMAGES, WE RETURNED TO THE TASK ONLY TO FIND THINGS HAD CHANGED. IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE RUNNING STREAM THAT HAS BEEN THERE FOR AT LEAST THE FIFTEEN YEARS PRIOR, NOW WAS GONE. AND NOT ONLY THAT, THE ENTIRE EDGES OF THE GLACIER HAD RECEDED AN AMAZING DEGREE.
NOW WE WILL POINT OUT HERE CLEARLY WE ARE NOT GLACIOLOGISTS, THOUGH WE KNOW GLACIERS CHANGE AND APPEAR DIFFERENTLY DEPENDING ON WHEN OBSERVED. WE ALSO HAVE NO REAL DATA OTHER THAN ANECDOTAL AND WHAT GOOGLE WILL SHOW US WHICH LACKS A LOT OF EVEN BASIC DATA, BUT WE ALSO CAN DO BASIC MATH.
THESE IMAGES SHOW THE BEND IN THE GLACIER WHERE BASECAMP USUALLY WAS, SPECIFICALLY BECAUSE THE WATER WAS THERE. THEY ARE TAKEN THREE YEARS APART, THE FIRST ONE CIRCLED IN RED AS PART OF A CONVERSATION ABOUT POWER GENERATION, THE COORDINATES CONFIRM IT IS EXACTLY THE SAME PLACE.
WHERE THE CLEARLY MOVING STREAM WAS IS NOW A DRY BED OF SEDIMENT, SEPARATED FROM THE VALLEY WALL WITH THE EDGE OF THE MORAINE SHRUNK INWARDS. THE SNOW ON THE VALLEY WALL MAY BE ONLY A SEASONAL THING, BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT EVERY IMAGE TILL RECENTLY INCLUDES IT.
WITHIN THE SEDIMENT BED CAN BE SEEN REMNANT ISLANDS OF ICE, AND SMALL SEDIMENT-THICK LAKES THAT CONTAIN NO LONGER FLOWING WATER. WE ENCOURAGE ANYONE TO GO TO GOOGLE EARTH THEMSELVES FOR A BETTER VIEW, THAT SHOWS A DISTINCT LINE OF WHERE THE STREAM WAS WHEN IT WAS AT IT’S PEAK FLOW IN SUMMER.
THIS SECOND IMAGE PULLS BACK ABOUT 10km (NOTE THE COORDS DON’T QUITE MATCH WITH THE EARTHS ANGLE BUT IT’S CLEARLY THE SAME), WHICH SHOWS TO A GREATER DEGREE THE SHRINKING OF THE ICE. FOR REFERENCE WHAT YOU CAN SEE THERE, THE GLACIER IS NEARLY 900m WIDE AND JUST OVER 7km OF ITS LENGTH IS SHOWN.
IT IS HERE IT CAN BE ESTIMATED HOW FAR THE EDGES HAVE RECEDED, NOTING IT ACTUALLY APPEARS TO HAVE COME IN MORE ON THE OTHER (WESTERN SIDE). RUDIMENTARY MEASUREMENTS USING GOOGLE MEASURE THE SHRINKAGE AS ABOUT 60m IN ON THE EAST SIDE AND 90m IN ON THE WEST. EVEN MORE RUDIMENTARY MEASUREMENTS USING THE ALTITUDE FUNCTION SHOW A DROP IN LEVEL OF ABOUT 30m VERTICAL, WHICH FOR QUICK REFERENCE IS A 10 STORY BUILDING.
EVEN FACTORING FOR TEMPORARY SNOW COVER, IT IS EASY TO SEE ROCK EXPOSED LOWER WHERE IT WASN’T 3 YEARS BEFORE, AND SNOW AND ICE FIELDS THAT ONCE CONNECTED TO THE GLACIER NO LONGER TOUCHING. IMPACT ZONES OF RADIATING CREVASSES (APOLOGIES TO ALL GLACIOLOGIST FOR OUR IMPERFECT TERMINOLOGY) THAT WERE ONCE FEATURES ARE NOW FIZZLING OUT, AND THE AMOUNT OF ROCK DEBRIS FLOWING DOWN OFF THE ERODED VALLEY WALLS SEEMS MUCH MORE.
MORE BASIC MATH THAT APPROXIMATES THE GLACIERS FULL LENGTH AND SCALE, GIVES A NUMBER OF AROUND A BILLION CUBIC METERS OF ICE HAVING GONE BETWEEN THE TWO IMAGES TAKEN. WE DON’T HAVE IMAGES TAKEN FROM BACK THEN OF THE GLACIERS SNOUT, BUT USING THE SAME ‘TIDE MARK’ THAT SHOWS HOW THE UPPER STREAM HAS DROPPED, IT APPEARS TO SHOW THE SNOUT IS NOT ABOUT 300m BACK AND HAVING LOST ALSO ABOUT 20m OF THICKNESS, WHICH EMBARRASSINGLY SIMPLISTIC MATHS EQUATES TO ABOUT 1.5 MILLION CUBIC METERS OF ICE GONE JUST THERE.
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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
FOR US IT MEANS A SHIFT IN ENERGY SOURCES, AS WE HAVE BOTH LOST A SOURCE OF POWER AS WELL PROBABLY DIRECT ACCESS TO RUNNING WATER, MEANING MORE ENERGY NEEDED TO MELT ICE AND FEWER ENERGY SOURCES TO DRAW IT FROM. WE THINK WE CAN DEAL WITH IT WITHOUT RESORTING TO GENERATORS, AND ARE DOING THE NUMBERS ALONG WITH MORE RESEARCH.
OF COURSE THE PLIGHT OF SOME CLIMBERS IS A MINOR CONCERN, WITH THE REAL MATTER BEING THE GEOGRAPHY AND ENVIRONMENT OF THE NORTH KARAKORAM. A BILLION CUBIC METERS OF ICE ISN’T COMING BACK AS LONG AS WE ARE HERE, AND MORE WILL MELT BEFORE THINGS GO ANY OTHER WAY, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE RIVERS AND HOW THEY FLOW THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.
STILL RELEVANT TO US, IT WILL AFFECT HUMIDITY, WHICH AFFECTS TEMPERATURE AND WIND, ONE OF THE FEW THINGS TO HAVE BEEN RESEARCHED OUT THERE. MORE EXPOSED ROCK, LESS REFLECTED RADIATION AND LOWER ICE MASS ALL MEAN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVEL OF HUMIDITY, WHICH MOVES DOWN THE GLACIER AND MAKES IT SLIGHTLY MORE HABITABLE THOUGH IS PROBABLY THE MECHANISM THAT ALSO CAUSES THE MELT.
CLIMBING WISE, THE NORTH SIDE OF K2 ITSELF SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE, WITH THE BASE OF THE ROUTE BEING IN NEAR PERMANANT SHADOW WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE KEEP IT STABLE. ACCESS MAY NOW BE EASIER, IF THE NOW-EXPOSED SIDES OF THE GLACIER ALLOW WALKING, BUT THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS ON THE GLACIER IMPLIES MORE ROCKFALL. WE KNOW THE SHAKSGAM FLOODED IN 2022, AND HAVE ADJUSTED PLANS TO COPE WITH EXPECTED HIGHER WATER LEVELS, BUT WE ALSO KNOW THE WILDLIFE POPULATION IS INCREASING IN PART DUE TO MORE GREENERY TO SUPPORT IT.
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BEYOND THIS, WE LEAVE THINGS UP TO THE RESEARCHERS, AND ACTUAL DATA WE WILL GATHER WHEN WE GET OUT THERE WITH OUR FIRST TRIPS. MILITARY PRESENCE IS EXTENDING CLOSER TO K2 SO WE ASSUME THE CHINA AUTHORITIES ARE AWARE OF ALL THIS, AND WILL ASK WHEN WE MEET WITH THE XMA AND LOOK FOR ANY RESEARCH PUBLISHED INSIDE CHINA.
AS ALWAYS, WE PRESENT NO AGENDA, JUST SIMPLY SHOW THINGS AS WE FIND THEM THAT ARE RELEVANT TO CLIMBING. ALL THIS COULD MAKE THINGS EASIER, WE DON’T KNOW. EITHER WAY THIS IS A DYNAMIC PLACE, AS MOUNTAINS ALWAYS ARE, SO WE WILL ADAPT AND TREAD LIGHTLY AND GO TO SEE FOR OURSELVES.