GIMME DANGER. ACCEPTABLE & UNACCEPTABLE RISK
WE ARE ONLY A FEW MONTHS OUT FROM OUR EXPEDITIONS HEADED TO TIBET AND THE NORTH KARAKORAM, AND ARE GATHERING SPEED AS ALL THE PIECES CONVERGE THAT RESULT IN US STEPPING OFF. THERE’S A LOT OF DESIGN GOING ON, A LOT OF LOGISTICAL PLANNING, A LOT OF TRAINING AND A LOT OF REFINING OF IDEAS, AND ALL OF THIS IS IN THE LIGHT OF THE RISKS THAT FORM THE NATURE OF HIGH ALTITUDE MOUNTAINEERING.
WE PUT ACCEPTANCE OF EXPEDITION RISKS FRONT AND CENTER IN OUR OPERATIONS, NOT HIDDEN AWAY AMONGST SMALL PRINT. WE PUT IT HERE, SO EVERYONE IS ON THE SAME PAGE AS TO WHAT OUR EXPEDITIONS ENTAIL AND WHAT IS ACCEPTABLE. SOME OF OUR EXPEDITION RISKS ARE UNIQUE, NOT FOUND ELSEWHERE IN THE HIMALAYAS, AND ASIDE FROM INCLUDING THINGS LIKE CROSSING RIVERS ON CAMELS, ALSO INCLUDE MORE MUNDANE THINGS LIKE HIGH SPEED FREEWAYS AND DELAYS ON SUBWAYS. SOME RISKS NEED TO BE ACCEPTED SIMPLY TO LEAVE THE GROUND, AND IN THE CASE OF EXPEDITIONS – TO LEAVE HOME AT ALL. ACCEPTABLE RISKS ARE VERY SUBJECTIVE, AND WHAT IS ACCEPTABLE TO ONE CLIMBER MAY NOT BE TO ANOTHER.
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WE LOOK AT RISKS FROM SEVERAL ANGLES INCLUDING OVERVIEW RISKS ACROSS AN ENTIRE TRIP, OBJECTIVE RISKS INVOLVED WITH THE CLIMBING AND STUFF OUT DIRECTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND MITIGATING RISKS THAT ARE WHAT CAN BE ACCEPTED SHOULD THINGS GO SIDEWAYS.
WE ASK THAT OUR TEAMSTERS GIVE SOME THOUGHT ALONG THE SAME LINES SO THEY ARE PART OF THE RISK-SCAPE, AND NOT UNDER ANY ILLUSION THAT THEY ARE OUTSIDE THE RISKS INVOLVED. WE DISCUSS CONSTANTLY THE EVER-EVOLVING RISK PARADIGMS WE ARE IN, AND WHERE WE ALL SIT WITHIN THEM, FULLY AWARE THAT HALF THE RISKS OF EXPEDITION CLIMBING ARE SUBJECTIVE, ie RISKS THAT ONLY EXIST BECAUSE WE ARE THERE.
KNOWING YOUR POSITION IN A RISK-SCAPE IS HALF OF THE RISK ITSELF, PUTTING OTHER RISKS INTO PERSOECTIVE SO THEY CAN BE ASSESSED, ADDRESSED AND PLANNED AROUND.
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OVERVIEW RISKS
GOING TO REMOTE PLACES IN OTHER CULTURES TO CLIMB UNKNOWN MOUNTAINS IN EXTREME COLD IS A PARADIGM FOR MORE RISK ELEMENTS THAN ALMOST ANYTHING ELSE. EVEN SPACE MISSIONS AND THE COMMANDOS TAKE PLACE WITHIN FEWER CATEGORIES OF RISK THAN THIS, BUT THAT DOESN’T MEAN THINGS ARE NOT ABLE TO BE RESOLVED AND BROUGHT INTO WELL ACCEPTABLE LIMITS.
TEAMSTERS PRIMARILY NEED TO BE AWARE THAT NOT ALL RISKS ARE IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND THAT THINGS LIKE ROADS, RIVERS, LOCALS, FOOD AND RANDOMNESS END JUST AS MANY TRIPS IF NOT MORE THAN ACCIDENTS OR CALAMITY. OUR JOB IS TO ORCHESTRATE TRIPS THAT CONDENSE RISK AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE TO THE CLIMBING ELEMENT, AND WE ARE NOTORIOUS FOR HOW STRICT WE ARE WITH SHUTTING DOWN RISK FACTORS ELSEWHERE.
BAD DRIVERS, A CAVALIER ATTITUDE ON ROADS, POOR LOGISTICS AND EQUIPMENT, CHEAP AND NASTY HOTELS, CHEAP AND NASTY FOOD SUPPLIERS, HIRING COUSINS, BRIBING FOR FAVOURS, CUTTING CORNERS ON RESOURCES etc ALL ADD UP TO INTRODUCE RISKS WHERE THEY COMPLETELY AVOIDABLE. TEAMSTERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT BECAUSE WE GO WHERE THERE IS NO INDUSTRIAL OR TOURISM BUBBLE, WE NEED TO REDUCE RISK ELEMENTS FURTHER THAN OTHERS BECAUSE THERE’S NO EASY WAY TO MAKE UP FOR PROBLEMS IF WE LET THEM IN.
OUR TRIPS HAVE NONE OF THE ‘CRAZY’ STUFF SOME OTHERS DO SUCH AS BOOZY NIGHTS, WILD PARTIES AND LADDISH DARES. TO SOME THIS CAN SEEM BORING BUT WE ARE UNAPOLOGETIC, AND HENCE LOSE NO TIME TO THINGS LIKE HANGOVERS, LOST ITEMS, LATE WAKE UPS AND BAD REPUTATIONS. IT DOESN’T MEAN WE ARE SERIOUS GROWN UPS, ONLY THAT WE DON’T INTENTIONALLY INTRODUCE RISKS IN THE HALF OF THE TRIP THAT DOESN’T NEED IT.
LIKEWISE OVERVIEW RISKS INCLUDE THINGS LIKE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES, AVERAGE ALTITUDES, CALORIE CONSUMPTION AND REST, AND BY EASING THE CURVE ON SUCH THINGS WE CAN VENTURE INTO PARADIGMS OTHER EXPEDITIONS CAN’T. WE ARE OFTEN ASKED WHY WE CLIMB SO MUCH IN EARLY WINTER, AND IT IS BECAUSE WE CAN TRADE OFF THINGS LIKE THE COLD FOR THE STABILITY OF ENVIRONMENT.
EARLY WINTER GIVES US BETTER ROAD ACCESS, LOWER WATER LEVELS, MORE RELIABLE FLIGHTS, BETTER FOOD STORAGE AND BETTER CHOICES IN HOTELS – ALL OF WHICH IS EASILY WORTH THE COST OF SOME EXTRA GEAR AND FUEL. BY ANALYZING THE EFFECTS WE CAN TURN THEM INTO ADVANTAGES, THAT FURTHER CONSOLIDATE RISKS INTO PLACES WHERE WE HAVE FEWER DISTRACTIONS AWAY FROM CONTINGENCY.
AT THIS LEVEL RISKS ARE NOT ACCEPTABLE IF THEY MIGHT STOP DELIVERING CLIMBERS TO THE MOUNTAINS THEY CAME FOR, AND THAT INCLUDES THE RESOURCES AND GEAR THAT ARE NEEDED FOR THAT. WE HAPPILY ACCEPT SOME COSTS WHEN THEY CONTRIBUTE DIRECTLY TO REDUCING THE RISK OF GEAR BEING DAMAGED OR LOST, OR IF THEY MEAN LOWER RISKS ON ROADS OR LOGISTICS SECURITY WITH THINGS LIKE HOTELS AND FOOD.
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OBJECTIVE RISKS
THIS IS THE CLASSIC STUFF – OR SO CLIMBERS ASSUME – OF CLIMBING IN BIG MOUNTAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE. THESE RISKS ARE SUPERFICIALLY OBVIOUS TO ANYONE WHO CLIMBS, TO THE POINT OF BECOMING TOO ACCEPTED AND OBFUSICATING OTHERS.
THERE IS ZERO NEED TO INTRODUCE ANY RISKS HERE BECAUSE SO MANY ARE ALREADY INHERENT, INCLUDING ALL THE USUAL SUSPECTS LIKE ROCKFALL, FALLING, STOVES IN TENTS, COLD INJURY, SELF INJURY WITH SHARP GEAR, AVALANCHES etc. IT IS BORDERING ON INSANE TO ACCEPT FURTHER UNNECESSARY RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THINGS LIKE SANITATION, BRAVADO AND STUNTS FOR THE ENTERTAINMENT OR PROFIT OF SPONSORS, WITH EXACTLY THIS ACCOUNTING FOR A CONSISTENT NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS ON THE CROWDED ROUTES WE AVOID.
CENTRAL TO THIS CATEGORY IS THE ‘RISK SHADOW’, THE HAZARDS AND THREATS THAT LAY BEHIND THINGS ASSUMED TO BE SAFE. CLIPPING A 24kn RATED BINER INTO AN UNRATED LOOP OF CORD IS THE USUAL EXAMPLE, BUT SO IS THE PERSON WHO NEGATES ASSESSING AND ADDRESSING THEIR OWN RISK EXPOSURE BY ASSUMING IT’S THE SAME AS SOMEONE ELSES.
THE RED FLAG HERE IS ‘SIGNING OFF’ ON RISKS – THE ACTION OF THINKING SOMETHING IS NO LONGER NEEDING ASSESSMENT BECAUSE AT ONE POINT IT’S DEEMED SAFE. IN ALMOST EVERY ANALYSIS OF CATASTROPHIC EVENTS THIS IS THE ROOT CAUSE, INDICATED BY SOMEONE SAYING THEY “THOUGHT IT WAS OK”.
THE ANTIDOTE HERE IS TO NOT ACCEPT ANY CERTAINTY OF ANY RISK FACTOR, AND TO HAVE THINGS SEEN AS A PROBLEM EITHER RESOLVED OR KEPT ON ALERT, THE POINT BEING TO NEVER RELEGATE A KNOWN RISK TO THE ‘SAFE’ CATEGORY. THE FACT THAT A RISK CAN EXIST MEANS THAT IT DOES, AND THE ASSUMPTION OF SAFETY IS HALF OF THAT RISK.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WORLD BECOMES AN IMPENETRATABLE WALL OF DANGER, IT MEANS THAT THE CLIMBER MUST ACT WITH A CLEAR LOGIC TO NAVIGATE IT. EXTRAORDINARY RISKS CAN BE RENDERED ACCEPTABLE WITH GOOD OBSERVATION AND LOGIC, A LOW HANGING EXAMPLE BEING CLIMBING SOMETIMES AT 3am WHEN THE COLD MAKES THINGS MORE STABLE.
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MITIGATING RISKS
THINGS WILL ALWAYS GO OFF-PLAN, AND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN EPIC AND A CATASTROPHY IS THE WAY RISK IS MITIGATED. SOME ACTIONS WILL REDUCE OPTIONS OR ESCALATE RISK IN WAYS THAT MAY NOT BE SURMOUNTABLE, WHILST OTHER ACTIONS MAY NOT BE PLEASANT BUT THEY STAY AHEAD OF A POINT OF NO RETURN.
WHEN THINGS START TO COME LOOSE, ANY ACTION THAT BRINGS GETS THE CLIMBERS OUT OF THE REACTION CURVE IS ACCEPTABLE, WHICH EFFECTIVELY MEANS TO REGAIN CONTROL. OF COURSE SOMETIMES ENTIRE SITUATIONS CANNOT BE CONTROLLED, SUCH AS RISING FLOOD WATERS, STORMS OR HAVING ROPES STUCK ON A DESCENT, BUT ALMOST ALWAYS A SERIES OF ACTIONS CAN BE TAKEN WHERE THOSE IN IT REGAIN A STATE WHERE THEY CAN CHOOSE THE COURSE THEY TAKE, EVEN IF IT IS ONLY TO WAIT.
UNACEPTABLE IN THIS CONTEXT IS ANYTHING THAT RASIES THE STAKES, WHICH MEANS ANYTHING THAT MAKES A SCENARIO MORE COMPLEX, HIGHER CONSEQUENCE, MORE SYSTEMIC OR MORE VOLATILE, WHICH USUALLY INVOLVES EVENTS GETTING LOCKED INTO A SINGLE DIRECTION OF OUTCOME. ACCIDENT REPORTS OF CATASTROPHIC ACCIDENTS USUALLY DESCRIBE A PROCESS OF MANY STEPS THAT LEAD TO THE END, WITH A POINT ALONG THE WAY BEING WHERE NOTHING WAS GOING TO CHANGE THE RESULT. ANY CHOICES MADE UNDER MITIGATION THAT TAKE OPTIONS OFF THE TABLE ARE POOR ONES, DESPITE THE HOLLYWOOD DRAMATICS OF THE HEROIC EFFORT.
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WHAT MATTERS
LIKE IGGY POP IN THE SPLASH IMAGE, WHAT MATTERS IS HOW MUCH RISK YOU WILL ENTERTAIN IN ORDER TO GET WHAT YOU CAME FOR, WHICH IS A VERY PERSONAL THING. OVER THE MANY EMAILS WE INVEST IN AS WE ARRANGE EXPEDITIONS WE TRY TO GET TEAMSTERS TO CONSIDER THEIR APPETITE FOR THESE THINGS AND TO ADDRESS WHAT THEY CAN, BY MITIGATING AS MUCH RISK AS POSSIBLE BEFORE WE EVER LEAVE HOME.
WHAT APPEARS CRAZY TO THE PASSING OBSERVER CAN ACTUALLY BE CAREFULLY AND LOGICALLY PLANNED WITH A GREAT DEAL OF CONTINGENCY, EVEN TAKING WHAT APPEAR AS RISKS AND RETOOLING THINGS TO MAKE THEM SAFE. WE ALLOW THE ARMCHAIR GALLERY TO THINK ALL THIS IS MENTAL, THAT WE ARE COURTING DANGER OR INVITING CATASTROPHY, WHILST WE GET ON WITH THE VERY SERIOUS BUSINESS OF EXECUTING TRIPS TO PLACES WITH AN EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH LEVEL OF MITIGATION.
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